《经济学人》:新冷战 - 如何应对美国与正崛起的中国之间日益加剧的竞争
2019-06-10 geluman 5697
原文地址
原文地址:https://www.economist.com/
正文翻译
原创翻译:网站名称 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻译:geluman 转载请注明出处
论坛地址:http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-486490-1-1.html



Fighting over trade is not the half of it. The UnitedStates and China are contesting every domain, from semiconductors to submarinesand from blockbuster films to lunar exploration. The two superpowers used toseek a win-win world. Today winning seems to involve the other lot’s defeat—acollapse that permanently subordinates China to the American order; or ahumbled America that retreats from the western Pacific. It is a new kind ofcold war that could leave no winners at all.

贸易战并非其中的一半内容,中美之间在各个领域展开竞争,从半导体到潜水艇,从电影大片到月球探测,这两个超级大国曾经寻求过一个双赢的世界。如今看来,获胜一方会使得另一方遭受重大失败——一场使中国永久从属于美国秩序的崩溃抑或从西太平洋撤退的恭顺的美国,这是一场根本不会有赢家的新冷战。

As our special report in this week’s issueexplains, superpower relations have soured. America complains that China ischeating its way to the top by stealing technology, and that by muscling intothe South China Sea and bullying democracies like Canada and Sweden. it isbecoming a threat to global peace. China is caught between the dream ofregaining its rightful place in Asia and the fear that tired, jealous Americawill block its rise because it cannot accept its own decline. The potential forcatastrophe looms. Under the Kaiser, Germany dragged the world into war;America and the Soviet Union flirted with nuclear Armageddon. Even if China andAmerica stop short of conflict, the world will bear the cost as growth slowsand problems are left to fester for lack of co-operation.Both sides need tofeel more secure, but also to learn to live together in a low-trust world.Nobody should think that achieving this will be easy or quick。

正如我们在这期周刊中的特别报道所述,超级大国之间的关系已经恶化。美国抱怨称中国通过窃取技术、强行插手南中国海和欺凌加拿大和瑞典等民主国家的方式,在通往巅峰的道路上作弊,其正成为世界和平的威胁。中国被其恢复在亚洲原有地位的梦想和另其疲惫的恐惧所困扰,而嫉妒的美国将会阻止中国的崛起,因为它无法接受自身的衰落。潜在的灾难似乎在临近,德皇威廉二世统治下的德国将世界拖入战争当中;美国和苏联则意图进行末日核决战。即便中美停止冲突,随着增长放缓,问题因缺乏合作而恶化,世界仍会承受代价。双方都需要更多安全感但也需要学会在低信任度的世界中共存,人们不应认为实现这一目标是容易或迅速的。



Another of those strengths lies inAmerica’s alliancesand the institutions and norms it set up after the second world war. Team Trumphas rubbished norms instead of buttressing institutions and attacked theEuropean Union and Japan over trade rather than working with them to pressChina to change. American hard power in Asia reassures its allies, butPresident Donald Trump tends to ignore how soft power cements alliances, too.Rather than cast doubt on the rule of law at home and bargain over theextradition of a Huawei executive from Canada, he should be pointing to thesurveillance state China has erected against the Uighur minority in the westernprovince of Xinjiang.

这些优势还在于美国的同盟以及在二战后建立的制度和规范。特朗普团队已经废弃了规范而不是支持它,并且在贸易问题上抨击欧盟和日本而不是和它们合作,迫使中国做出改变。美国在亚洲地区的硬实力能使起盟友安心,但特朗普总统倾亦有忽视软实力是如何黏合盟友的倾向。他应该将矛头指向中国在西部省份新疆对少数民族维吾尔族建立的监控状态,而不是质疑国内法律并在从加拿大引渡华为高管的问题上讨价还价。

As well as focusing on its strengths,America needs to shore up its defences. This involves hard power as China armsitself, including in novel domains such as space and cyberspace. But it alsomeans striking a balance between protecting intellectual property andsustaining the flow of ideas, people, capital and goods. When universities andSilicon Valley geeks scoff at national-security restrictions they are beingnaive or disingenuous. But when defence hawks over-zealously call for shuttingout Chinese nationals and investment they forget that American innovationdepends on a global network.

除了专注于自身力量,美国还需要加强国防,这就涉及中国军队用于武装自身的硬实力,包括太空和网络空间等新兴领域。但这也同时意味在保护知识产权与维持思想、人员、资本和商品的流通之间取得平衡。当大学和硅谷极客藐视国家安全限制条例时他们是幼稚和虚伪的。但当国防鹰派分子过于热情地呼吁将中国公民和投资拒之门外时,他们忘了美国的创新依赖于全球网络。



Three decades after the fall of the SovietUnion, the unipolar moment is over. In China, America faces a vast rival thatconfidently aspires to be number one. Business ties and profits, which used tocement the relationship, have become one more matter to fight over. China andAmerica desperately need to create rules to help manage the rapidly evolvingera of superpower competition. Just now, both see rules as things to break.

苏联解体三十年后,单极时刻已经结束,在中国,美国面对着一个庞大的对手,它充满自信并渴望成为世界第一。曾经巩固关系的商业纽带和收益已经成为又一个争夺对象。中国和美国迫切需要制定规则来应对快速演变的超级大国竞争时代。而如今,双方都认为规则是用来打破的。
评论翻译
收藏译文