《经济学人》:新冷战 - 如何应对美国与正崛起的中国之间日益加剧的竞争
2019-06-10 geluman 5697
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Fighting over trade is not the half of it. The UnitedStates and China are contesting every domain, from semiconductors to submarinesand from blockbuster films to lunar exploration. The two superpowers used toseek a win-win world. Today winning seems to involve the other lot’s defeat—acollapse that permanently subordinates China to the American order; or ahumbled America that retreats from the western Pacific. It is a new kind ofcold war that could leave no winners at all.


As our special report in this week’s issueexplains, superpower relations have soured. America complains that China ischeating its way to the top by stealing technology, and that by muscling intothe South China Sea and bullying democracies like Canada and Sweden. it isbecoming a threat to global peace. China is caught between the dream ofregaining its rightful place in Asia and the fear that tired, jealous Americawill block its rise because it cannot accept its own decline. The potential forcatastrophe looms. Under the Kaiser, Germany dragged the world into war;America and the Soviet Union flirted with nuclear Armageddon. Even if China andAmerica stop short of conflict, the world will bear the cost as growth slowsand problems are left to fester for lack of co-operation.Both sides need tofeel more secure, but also to learn to live together in a low-trust world.Nobody should think that achieving this will be easy or quick。


Another of those strengths lies inAmerica’s alliancesand the institutions and norms it set up after the second world war. Team Trumphas rubbished norms instead of buttressing institutions and attacked theEuropean Union and Japan over trade rather than working with them to pressChina to change. American hard power in Asia reassures its allies, butPresident Donald Trump tends to ignore how soft power cements alliances, too.Rather than cast doubt on the rule of law at home and bargain over theextradition of a Huawei executive from Canada, he should be pointing to thesurveillance state China has erected against the Uighur minority in the westernprovince of Xinjiang.


As well as focusing on its strengths,America needs to shore up its defences. This involves hard power as China armsitself, including in novel domains such as space and cyberspace. But it alsomeans striking a balance between protecting intellectual property andsustaining the flow of ideas, people, capital and goods. When universities andSilicon Valley geeks scoff at national-security restrictions they are beingnaive or disingenuous. But when defence hawks over-zealously call for shuttingout Chinese nationals and investment they forget that American innovationdepends on a global network.


Three decades after the fall of the SovietUnion, the unipolar moment is over. In China, America faces a vast rival thatconfidently aspires to be number one. Business ties and profits, which used tocement the relationship, have become one more matter to fight over. China andAmerica desperately need to create rules to help manage the rapidly evolvingera of superpower competition. Just now, both see rules as things to break.